This Week In Football is a collection of some of the best in football currently outside the walls of AFL clubs or broadcasters. Each week a curated grab bag from regular contributors and special guests will provide insight into and beyond the game on subjects of their choosing. For more about our contributors, click here.
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Before the Bounce
And then there were four.
The 2025 AFL season stands on the cusp of conclusion with Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane and Collingwood on the precipice of another flag. In an extremely compelling season four well matched sides are set to excite and engage for just two more weeks before top level men’s football goes away for half a year (the Dub is still there however).
One might think that this week would filled be wall to wall coverage about the teams left and how they will win the flag. About the aging Collingwood and Geelong, the resurgent Hawks and the reigning premiers. There’s storylines all over the shop, and plenty of intriguing on field wrinkles to break down.
Unfortunately one would be wrong. Instead the obsession has been on moves for next season and beyond, all delivered from a cloak of official secrecy. Rumours and hearsay are reported with the factual seriousness of match reports. Zach Merrett may not have publicly said anything this week, but everyone else seemingly has.
There’s room to discuss multiple things at once – people can walk and chew gum. But when the attention of the footy media has so incessantly focused on the mouth closing in and out on that gum, we’ve sort of missed that the legs have carried us to the end of the journey.
Enjoy the last three games of the year.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Geelong
Jack Turner/The Back Pocket
Geelong came into the season as one of the stronger fancies for the flag, but a mixed run of form heading into the byes paired with some incredible runs of form from Collingwood and Adelaide, paired with a soft run home for Geelong saw them drop back in a lot of peoples’ estimations – right up until their dominant performance against Brisbane in their qualifying final, where they completely flipped the script on their past two meetings.
The Cats have proven to be one of the most dangerous sides this year with ball in hand, moving the ball quickly and by foot, using their elite runners and strong contested marks both in front of and behind the ball to cut teams apart on the turnover.
Geelong are ranked #1 for Marks Inside 50 and #2 for Intercept Marks and Contested Marks respectively, the only team ranked in the top three for all three categories. Once they obtain possession, their run and carry sees them as the hardest team in the game to stop with ball in hand. They are the most effective team in 2025 at scoring from turnover, as well as the most efficient at turning D50 chains into scores, which has resulted in the Cats having more shots on goal than any other side.
Their ability to create an extra behind the ball – something Brisbane prevented back in round 15 – be it Guthrie, Henry, Stewart or even O’Sullivan makes it extremely hard for teams to score, and the hard running of their half forwards who function as pseudo wings mean they almost always have someone over the top. Most of the time that someone is Shannon Neale or Oliver Dempsey. The numbers show that in order to beat the Cats you have to prevent their uncontested and intercept marking game, as well as scoring quickly from stoppages in the middle of the ground.
The last time these two sides met was all the way back on Easter Monday where the two sides played another classic, with Hawthorn winning both the marking game and centre stoppage matchups thanks to a career best performance from Lloyd Meek. A brutal concussion to Gryan Miers slowed Geelong’s run somewhat, and Hawthorn did everything they could to peg back the Cats early four-and-a-bit goal lead.
Where Geelong will likely look to win this game is through their Irish weapons, with Mullin and O’Connor doing vital shutdown jobs all year. It is likely one of the two will head to September Specialist Jai Newcombe, and the other will follow Dylan Moore or Nick Watson. Another crucial match-up is Brad Close heading to James Sicily – Ollie Henry has done this job in the past, but has slipped out of Geelong’s best 22 in favour of Jack Martin.
Keep an eye out for the big men in Geelong’s forward half, as first-time All Australian Josh Battle will likely match up on the Coleman Medal winner in Jeremy Cameron, meaning Shannon Neale will look to exploit Tom Barrass’ lack of mobility and get out the back for some crucial goals from turnover.
Hawthorn
Sean Lawson
Hawthorn come into this as at least a modest underdog in the face of a Geelong side who are statistically near the top of the league in most measures for the year.
Hawthorn’s most notable strengths this year have centred around their potent forward line mix, and some sturdy defenders behind the ball, but their ability to deploy both of those things is downstream of an ability to win enough territory to do so.
That means gaining ascendency through stoppages to avoid giving away too much terrritory in the first place, and it means somehow beating the Geelong high press when they do end up in defence.
Around the ball, Hawthorn’s coalface mix minus Will Day are hardly world-beaters but Jai Newcombe has had some eye-catching form so far in finals, bursting out of packs to set them up to score. The Hawks are near the top of the tree for post-clearance ground ball and handball receives, and feeding the likes of Josh Ward and Massimo D’Ambrosio running into space should prove crucial to Hawthorn’s chances.
Coming out of defence, Hawthorn will surely look to improve on their ability to transition past a high line, having experienced getting trapped in their defensive zone at times through the season, especially in their biggest losses.
There’s not necessarily an easy answer here – that’s why so many teams have drifted towards the “front half team”meta to begin with. Fully scoring from transition in these situations is one thing, but it’s difficult to do consistently and many opponents are content just to make it a territory battle – kick to a lower risk situation, play for a stoppage, work from there.
The Hawks have some forward-line marking power to compete with the Cats’ press in the air, and some elite users if they can find the space to make the right kicks through traffic. However in the end, the heat of a final a lot of the Hawthorn defensive escape plan will likely end up built on halving contests on those escape kicks and then either securing the upfield stoppage or, if possible, finding some ground ball speed and handball receives to launch off the pack before everything resets.
If Hawthorn are to win, the likely word on observers’ lips will be “speed”, both out of contests and coming off the Geelong setup behind the ball.
Collingwood v Brisbane
Collingwood
Cody Atkinson
In many senses Collingwood and Brisbane are polar opposites. Chaos and control, talls v smalls. It’s what makes the matchup so compelling, and often so close.
Since Craig McRae has been in charge at the Pies they have often been the gold standard. They’ve manipulated late game situations better than any other side, and finessed space like few other teams before. They flow into space super effectively – it can be quite hard to follow if you don’t know what you are watching for. They often throw their high forwards on the edge of contest and get them flowing into space, and protect behind the ball with a spare. They run in spaced lines, spreading the defence across the ground and creating space.
If you aren’t prepared, they can really tear you up.
For Collingwood this year it’s all about defence. Early in the year Collingwood flashed some attacking improvements before injuries and opposition adjustment tempered expectations. Jamie Elliott probably deserved an All Australian nod, but it’s a forward set up that works to maximise its talent instead of having it carried by a small group of stars.
Let’s talk about that defence for a second. They’ve been the best at defending across the year in both a per possession chain and inside 50 entry basis. It’s a “bend not break” approach, one that has slightly hurt their transition game as a result. The Pies like to push their running defenders high and hard, banking on a floating spare tall (think Darcy Cameron) can effectively protect space to slow down counter attacks and enable recovery. The return of Jeremy Howe further boosts this unit.
This defence will be particularly critical considering how ball focused their midfield unit can get at contest at times. Brisbane’s midfield is particularly well balanced between attack and defence, and often leaves little room for easy escapes. If the Pies don’t protect space at stoppage effectively it could lead to a long night for everyone in black and white.
Brisbane
Joe Cordy
Brisbane are the consummate professionals of this finals period. With at least one game to go, they’ve conceded the second fewest free kicks this season (17.7/gm) and controlled possession of the footy as well as any side in the competition.
Theirs is a game of keeping off and moving by foot. Their elite fitness and running capacity allows them to play the ground like an accordion, spreading wide to pull apart holes in the opponent’s defensive structure before squeezing back in as they lead up to the kicker.
This makes them unique to other kick-first teams such as Geelong and Adelaide, is their indirectness towards goal. Despite kicking nearly two in every three disposals, they’re well below the league average for metres gained from those.
A typical Brisbane chain of possession involves scanning the field, waiting for a teammate to lead into space, that teammate plucking the ball out of the air and repeating, all while using the full width of the ground.
This patience and execution has significantly lifted the floor on their performances, but combined with factors like figuring out how to play without star key forward Joe Daniher, has significantly lowered their ceiling. They are the only finals side this year to not record a 10-goal victory against any side, and their 54-point win against their local rivals was only the second margin above 45 they’ve recorded this season.
This comparative lack of firepower has hung over the Lions all year, and was doubtlessly the key motivator behind pursuing West Coast captain Oscar Allen for 2026 and beyond, but it’s been compensated for by exerting unparalleled control over their games. Part of that foundation has been effectively ruled out for the season however, with captain and hybrid inside ball winner/first receiver at stoppages Lachie Neale battling calf issues. Combined with the absence of their most veteran key forward in Hipwood, and the season may prove to have gone four quarters too long for the Lions on Saturday.
There’s still a path to back to back premierships and a third grand final in as many years for the Lions, but it will rely on playing outside of their comfort zone and on the dynamism of players like Cam Rayner than the structure they’ve leant on so far.
Not going down with the ship
Emlyn Breese / CreditToDuBois.com
Oscar Allen is set to leave West Coast, Zach Merrett looks increasingly likely to find a new club, and there are now rumours around Jy Simpkin as well. Three current captains all leaving for greener pastures would be significant, but how does it stack up historically?
All in all, across VFL/AFL and AFLW there have been 50 instances where a player has departed a club as captain for a rival in the same league (including a few instances of mid-year transfers as captain).
V/AFL captain departures
The 1982/83 off-season was the most active with four captains jumping ship – Bruce Duperouze from St Kilda to Footscray, David Cloke from Richmond to Collingwood, and Kelvin Templeton and Peter Moore to Melbourne from Footscray and Collingwood respectively.
Two other occasions have seen three moves. In 2018/19 three captains left from Queensland to Melbourne. Dayne Beams returned from Brisbane to Collingwood, while Gold Coast co-captains Steven May and Tom Lynch both left, for Melbourne and Richmond respectively.
In 2019/20 the AFLW saw Carlton skipper Brianna Davey join arch-rivals Collingwood, Brisbane captain Leah Kaslar move to new league entrant Gold Coast, with Bulldogs captain Katie Brennan joining Richmond’s inaugural list.
The 1970s (9 captains moving) and 1980s (8) were the highpoint historically, however if all three touted moves happen this year it will already place the 2020s in the lead with seven moves already.
AFL and AFLW captain departures and their new homes
These have been some of the most famous player movements in history. The iconic Roy Cazaly moved from St Kilda to South Melbourne and Ron Barassi’s move to Carlton (and the closely connected sacking of Norm Smith as Melbourne coach) is arguably still the biggest news story in the games history.
In 1972-73 Geelong captain Doug Wade and John Rantall (South Melbourne) both moved to North Melbourne and were among six players to exercise an early form of free agency under the short-lived “10 year rule”. It was introduced as a precaution against restraint of trade claims, but rescinded prior to the next off-season.
Under previous transfer regimes, players didn’t even have to wait to the off-season to don a new guernsey. North’s inaugural VFL captain-coach Wels Eicke, Fitzroy’s Jack Casham, Footscray’s Stan Penberthy, Carlton’s Ansell Clarke, and Carlton’s Robert Walls are among captains to have left their clubs for a rival mid-season.
Captains leaving rarely do so on good terms and contract disputes are a common theme. As Collingwood Vice Captain, Len Thompson would join Captain Des Tuddenham in a player’s strike in 1970. After being stripped of leadership roles, Thompson would eventually become captain in 1978 and hoped to become Collingwood’s first 15-year player since Lou Richards. Instead, he was pushed out by coach Tom Hafey and joined South Melbourne. Two of the next three Collingwood skippers, Peter Moore and Mark Williams would also leave as captain, both acrimoniously.
North Melbourne’s Dick Taylor resigned during the 1934 season, disgusted with the team’s performance. He offered to stay on as a non-playing coach so long as he didn’t have to wear the jumper again, but North’s policy at the time was exclusively to use captain-coaches and so his resignation was accepted, returning to prior club Melbourne the following year. His replacement, Tom Fitzmaurice, would resign in similar circumstances the following year, having previously quit Essendon in the belief they tanked a game against VFA premiers Footscray in 1924.
There have been a few instances of players eventually returning to the club they captained, such as John Rantall returning to South Melbourne after winning a premiership with North Melbourne. The oddest of these has to be Tim Watson. Watson announced his retirement following the 1991 season. This didn’t stop West Coast from selecting him in the pre-season draft. The closest to playing a game for the Eagles Watson got was as boundary rider during their grand final win. He would be drafted again by Essendon in the following pre-season draft and lend his experience to the Baby Bombers premiership side.
The captaincy itself, much like the concept of one-club players, is heavily romanticised and possibly held in higher esteem by fans than those inside a club. While the captain may be an external figurehead, leadership is a joint effort.
However, captains have been selected by those within the club (and today generally by playing groups). Having a player in such a position either decide to leave or be forced out can hardly be a good thing. For want of a better word, the vibe stinks, even if it provides interesting list management opportunities (as I think is the case for most of the current touted moves).
Around the Grounds
- Marnie Vinall on ABC looked at the true cost of injuries, including some interesting observations about the soft cap limitations on preventative medical spending being a false economy.
- Kaitlyn Ferber at the AFL website looks at North’s AFLW unbeaten streak in global context as they charge towards all time records
- Jonathan Horn talks wily old veteran players at Collingwood at the Guardian
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